ICE vehicle values once EV's reach price tipping point. Slow decline or fiscal cliff?

[200MPH]

So, riddle me this Batman...

Things seem to change slowly in life then events happen that suddenly result in rapid change. Disruptions such as smartphones (2009 - but seems far longer ago now!), fall of Eastern Europe communism 30 years ago, or a global pandemic, just to cite 3 completely unrelated, but real examples of rapid change.

So this topic relates to the 95% of cars that are just appliances, and what happens to their value once the EV tipping point is reached. Somewhere in the not-to-distant future, EV's will reach a price tipping point and hence popularity tipping point and they will become the default purchase for the vast majority of appliance drivers out there. Including many of us on PF, who clearly all drive GT3's as dailys etc. Or at least we dream of it.

I've got solar on at home, run 3 cars, can charge in garage free from sun a fair bit of the time. So would be perfectly happy with replacing just one daily with EV with 200 - 300 km range, as a starting point. A decent % of Australia would be similar you'd say. So EV's sales will take off for daily driving duties, irrespective of Government market interference or not.

This may happen from, oh, 2025 - 2030, dunno just when, but fair to say it's coming not more than 1 - 2 typical new car lease cycles away.

So, what happens to the resale value of the seemingly default choice 35k SUV (looking at you RAV 4) or whatever once the lease is up soon after the EV price tipping point has been reached? I mean, who would buy it? Does the % resale value decline in a more or less linear way, or does it fall off a cliff?

It could be the proverbial diabolical problem:
Early adopt an EV and get burnt in a rapidly changing marketplace as tech changes, perhaps rapidly?
Or miss the boat and have a worthless ICE?.

Bugger it, back to dreaming of dailying an appreciating value GT3!

[Captiva Fan]

I think that for most people, charging from home will mean battery installs at home, 'cos they're at work during the sunlight. That's at least moderately expensive.
Plus I can't see a sudden drop in EV prices soon, there don't seem to be any technological advances ALMOST HERE that are going to drop storage prices. So IMHO you won't be seeing 150km-range Kia eRios for ~$20k any time soon.
Also I assume what got you pondering along these lines is the fact that EV's are going to be taxed in some equivalent-to-fuel-excise way soon, which adds another cost.

I think you put that stuff together and ICE's are going to simply depreciate harder. rather than fall off a cliff.

I'm not sure where exxies & desirables & collectibles will go, though. My gut feel is that if you've got a borderline-desirable that you're not all that attached to, say a 2017 HSV GTS that's just off lease, quite-soon would be a damned good time to ditch it.

[Captain_Slow]

Bit of both I reckon. Not much of an impact for the next few years. As we get closer to 2030 and it's clear that ICE is on the way out, it'll be harder to shift older/less popular/thirstier models. Once EVs are resoundingly mainstream, the majority of the ICE fleet will be pretty old so worthless anyway. But that'll mean you'd probably be pretty silly to drop a lot of money on a mainstream ICE car in say 2027. Enthusiast models are likely a different story, and even then that's debateable.

The counter to that is that as ICE cars reduce, the price of petrol ought to go down (supply/demand) - which oddly might extend the economic life of ICE cars.

TBH - and this really is a first world, car guy problem - I worry that there won't be any more manual performance cars to buy before too long, and I'm not sure how I feel about the idea say of an electric Porsche sports car.

[Captain_Slow]

Plus I can't see a sudden drop in EV prices soon, there don't seem to be any technological advances ALMOST HERE that are going to drop storage prices. So IMHO you won't be seeing 150km-range Kia eRios for ~$20k any time soon.

We're doing solar at our place soon and got a quote for battery storage. It's still crazy expensive - I thought it would have come down since we last got a quote in 2016 but no. Solar company guy reckoned it was because electric cars were driving up the demand for batteries and supply was only just keeping up. IIRC it would have taken something like 20 years for battery storage to pay for itself so we said no.

[Captiva Fan]

TBH - and this really is a first world, car guy problem - I worry that there won't be any more manual performance cars to buy before too long, and I'm not sure how I feel about the idea say of an electric Porsche sports car.

If you can accept a DSG as actually being fun, you'll be right.
If not, then like me you're scrood.
But hey, maybe in 2032 when petrol's $8/L and nobody wants one of those cruddy 2024 model 911 GT3's, we can buy one each for the $100 note which will STILL be in my wallet because who takes cash any more?

[Captain_Slow]

I don't like DSG - but I'm thinking more of no gears at all because EVs don't seem to need them. (Although the Porsche Taycan has a two-speed transmission so who knows where that might lead.

In my daydreamier moments I think about the idea of buying something like a manual Cayman GTS 4.0 before the end of the decade...then you wonder whether (a) that'll still be a thing and (b) does it make sense to drop big bucks on an ICE car at that point.

[chartreusehj]

Nice ICE equipped cars aren't going away any time soon.

Fuel will get expensive but who gives a shit when you're cruising around being awesome.

[fury]

Among a certain audience ICE cars will stick around, but only the more drivers cars... Eventually the Karen's of this world will all just be driving EVs... especially when more SUV types come along. Nobody will want an ICE Camry or Corolla 5-10 years old. Eventually as well the tipping point comes and you can get a perfectly good 10 y/o EV for $10k or so, so even if you are a pov cunt you can buy an EV.

I think fuel prices have close to peaked in the next 5 years (unlikely to go above $2/L) so fuel won't be the expensive part. It will be all the extra excise or taxes they also on them when our Government finally gets slapped with the Paris Accord / not forcing green enough by other countries. So that will be extra cost you will need to bare to drive an 'enthusiast' ICE vehicle.

[perthdrivers.txt]

If EVs are the same purchase price, cost half as much to service, or basically a set of brake pads if you DIY, give you mountainous torque from the lights (even something as otherwise mundane as a Hyundai Kona EV destroys equivalent vehicles 0-100) and mean you don’t have to set foot in a servo ever again, why would you *not* want one as a daily?

i mean assuming you don’t literally drive the Touge between your work and home I guess

Sure, keep that 911/Lotus/etc for the weekend, can’t see any interesting ICE cars going anywhere soon

[PLAYA]

Would 100% have one when price point is good and they not all fucking gay as. Teslas still proper money.

[nutttr]

For a run around a EV would be awesome.

I would expect most specialist stuff, Porsche, 4wd, etc are going to retain their value pretty well as they become hobby cars...

Maybe E85 will become mainstream???

[Dark Orange]

Batteries and motors are about as efficient as they are going to get, (over 95%) and any improvements will be cost and energy density. And while EVs are the logical end goal for private transport, they don't suit everybody.

However, the average ICE has only 25-30% thermal efficiency (with lab engines up to 50%) meaning there is still a *lot* of improvement to be made.

Better ICEs and cheaper batteries and motors will mean your typical camry style hybrid will be around for many years. As distribution systems improve, the vehicles will end up with smaller ICEs and larger batteries, leading me to predict that it will be at least 20 years before the ICE is all but dead.

[vet 180]

Its all kind of moot, nane a 10 year old soccer mum SUV thats worth anything now? That segment depreciates hard already.

Your small reliable hatches already use such a small amount of fuel it wont realky matter.

As petrol demand drops prices will go down (durring transition period, after they may well go up again) and as electricity demand rises prices will go up.

Sent from my SM-N960N using Tapatalk

[nastysven]

good cars will hold their value, shopping trolleys will be worth half their scrap value.

[lukevl]

Anyone who thinks we won’t see epically fun electric cars in 10 years time is cooked. They will be different to a 3 pedal ICE sure but fuck they will be fast, quiet, efficient, easy to work on and hackable