So, riddle me this Batman...
Things seem to change slowly in life then events happen that suddenly result in rapid change. Disruptions such as smartphones (2009 - but seems far longer ago now!), fall of Eastern Europe communism 30 years ago, or a global pandemic, just to cite 3 completely unrelated, but real examples of rapid change.
So this topic relates to the 95% of cars that are just appliances, and what happens to their value once the EV tipping point is reached. Somewhere in the not-to-distant future, EV's will reach a price tipping point and hence popularity tipping point and they will become the default purchase for the vast majority of appliance drivers out there. Including many of us on PF, who clearly all drive GT3's as dailys etc. Or at least we dream of it.
I've got solar on at home, run 3 cars, can charge in garage free from sun a fair bit of the time. So would be perfectly happy with replacing just one daily with EV with 200 - 300 km range, as a starting point. A decent % of Australia would be similar you'd say. So EV's sales will take off for daily driving duties, irrespective of Government market interference or not.
This may happen from, oh, 2025 - 2030, dunno just when, but fair to say it's coming not more than 1 - 2 typical new car lease cycles away.
So, what happens to the resale value of the seemingly default choice 35k SUV (looking at you RAV 4) or whatever once the lease is up soon after the EV price tipping point has been reached? I mean, who would buy it? Does the % resale value decline in a more or less linear way, or does it fall off a cliff?
It could be the proverbial diabolical problem:
Early adopt an EV and get burnt in a rapidly changing marketplace as tech changes, perhaps rapidly?
Or miss the boat and have a worthless ICE?.
Bugger it, back to dreaming of dailying an appreciating value GT3!
Things seem to change slowly in life then events happen that suddenly result in rapid change. Disruptions such as smartphones (2009 - but seems far longer ago now!), fall of Eastern Europe communism 30 years ago, or a global pandemic, just to cite 3 completely unrelated, but real examples of rapid change.
So this topic relates to the 95% of cars that are just appliances, and what happens to their value once the EV tipping point is reached. Somewhere in the not-to-distant future, EV's will reach a price tipping point and hence popularity tipping point and they will become the default purchase for the vast majority of appliance drivers out there. Including many of us on PF, who clearly all drive GT3's as dailys etc. Or at least we dream of it.
I've got solar on at home, run 3 cars, can charge in garage free from sun a fair bit of the time. So would be perfectly happy with replacing just one daily with EV with 200 - 300 km range, as a starting point. A decent % of Australia would be similar you'd say. So EV's sales will take off for daily driving duties, irrespective of Government market interference or not.
This may happen from, oh, 2025 - 2030, dunno just when, but fair to say it's coming not more than 1 - 2 typical new car lease cycles away.
So, what happens to the resale value of the seemingly default choice 35k SUV (looking at you RAV 4) or whatever once the lease is up soon after the EV price tipping point has been reached? I mean, who would buy it? Does the % resale value decline in a more or less linear way, or does it fall off a cliff?
It could be the proverbial diabolical problem:
Early adopt an EV and get burnt in a rapidly changing marketplace as tech changes, perhaps rapidly?
Or miss the boat and have a worthless ICE?.
Bugger it, back to dreaming of dailying an appreciating value GT3!
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