ICE vehicle values once EV's reach price tipping point. Slow decline or fiscal cliff?

[23Kev]

For us now that we are getting the GR Yaris which is clearly a compromised enthusiast car, which we’ll be keeping for a while, I’m definitely thinking that our next appliance car will be a hybrid or EV in 5 or so years time. The hard thing for us is that we’d likely want a car with a decent towing capacity. I know the new hybrid 4wd rav4 has a towing capacity of around 1500kgs, but we might want more than that. My nopics really likes the CH-R but I think it will realistically be too small for us (and obviously has no towing capacity).

It’s going to be a very interesting time in the next 5-10 years for these kinds of cars. I do wonder how these upcoming changes will affect the value of the GRY. I know it’s no GT3 but I do think (hope) it will hold its value over time.

[biteme]

Surely a used ICE car is better for the planet? My purchase plan is about $100k saved vs new. That pays for a lot of petrol and running costs and the car is already built so no new carbon footprint.

[Sathanas]

Surely a used ICE car is better for the planet? My purchase plan is about $100k saved vs new. That pays for a lot of petrol and running costs and the car is already built so no new carbon footprint.

Unless your old car runs on nuclear waste and asbestos it will be better for the environment than any new car.

Yeah, well try WA on for size the. FIT just got reduced to 3 c/kwh for all new installs as of last month. Oh, they make it up to you by giving you 10 c/kwh after 3 pm... and you make bugger all excess solar power after 3 pm of course!

I think one of the intentions is to encourage people to face their panels west, or at least one MPP string. Useless during the day, but good for evening AC usage

[200MPH]

Yeah, good theory about west facing string of panels, but it makes SFA difference in reality. We have 2 strings on our setup. 3.3kW East and 3.3 kW West. Due to shade issues on North facing roof.

Here's the real answer as to why after 3pm power matters not a damn, based on data from years of installs done by this mob (who installed our setup).

https://solar4ever.com.au/Solarafter3pm.php

[Sathanas]

Interesting link, thanks. So buttering up the economics for mass battery installs instead?

[TMM]

I think that for most people, charging from home will mean battery installs at home, 'cos they're at work during the sunlight. That's at least moderately expensive.

Charge it on the weekend? The average distance traveled to work is 15km, so 150km for a 5 day week. That's down the shittier end of most EV's range. Even if you chuck in an extra 50km of driving that's not directly to and from work during the week you should get by with at most a partial charge during the week and then do a full charge over the weekend.

and the car is already built so no new carbon footprint.

That's a false assumption because by purchasing a second hand car, you've enabled (or at least motivated) the previous owner or someone else up the chain to put themselves in a brand new car which does come with a significant manufacturing footprint. Unless you're buying a clapped out AU falcon with 500,000km, buying a second hand car which still has a significant amount of life left in it still comes with the responsibility to see the cars usable lifespan out. Everyone constantly selling and upgrading their vehicles drives down second hand prices and sees them reach end of life sooner. When the cars value becomes insignificant compared to rego/insurance/fuel there is a lot of motivation to send it to the scrappers and get a better car and the effects of that propagate all the way up to someone purchasing a new car.
The only way for cars to have a diminishing manufacturing footprint is for no new cars to exist and every car to be basically end of life already, like in Cuba.

[biteme]

That's a false assumption because by purchasing a second hand car, you've enabled (or at least motivated) the previous owner or someone else up the chain to put themselves in a brand new car which does come with a significant manufacturing footprint. Unless you're buying a clapped out AU falcon with 500,000km, buying a second hand car which still has a significant amount of life left in it still comes with the responsibility to see the cars usable lifespan out. Everyone constantly selling and upgrading their vehicles drives down second hand prices and sees them reach end of life sooner. When the cars value becomes insignificant compared to rego/insurance/fuel there is a lot of motivation to send it to the scrappers and get a better car and the effects of that propagate all the way up to someone purchasing a new car.
The only way for cars to have a diminishing manufacturing footprint is for no new cars to exist and every car to be basically end of life already, like in Cuba.

That does make some sense but I’m not forcing them to upgrade, especially if they traded/sold to a dealer. Me walking into the 2nd hand dealer and buying the used car is better than me walking into Tesla and buying a new car.

and whilst I may not push cars to their usable life we do keep them for more than a decade typically.

B

[Falc&Send]

Britain to ban sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/...15-p56eq2.html

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to announce next week a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030, five years earlier than previously planned, the Financial Times has reported.

Britain had originally planned to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel-powered cars from 2040, as part of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and in February Johnson brought this forward to 2035.

The FT said the new timetable was not expected to apply to some hybrid cars which use a mixture of electric and fossil fuel propulsion and could still be sold until 2035.

An end to the sale of new petrol and diesel cars would mark a huge shift in Britain's automotive market.

Industry figures show that petrol and diesel powered cars accounted for 73.6 per cent of new car sales so far this year, while just 5.5 per cent of sales were for pure electric vehicles, which are typically more expensive. Hybrid vehicles of various types made up the remaining sales.

[Ribfeast]

Solar economics have worked well for us so far, year-to-date we have generated $4341 in power @ 21c FiT (AGL), haven't had a power bill since January, and are $830 in credit at present. Means we can run the AC at night guilt free as summer heat approaches, and draw back on that big credit buffer as needed. Averaging around $15 credit a day currently. System is around 3 years old and has pretty much paid itself off already, in savings and FiT. Bills were $600-800 a quarter prior to solar.

CO2 savings from our generation this year are equivalent to 11.65 tons of CO2, 77,644km of driving, or 299 trees planted. I think we have generated around 20.6MWh so far this year,

[Captain_Slow]

In a way it'll probably be good - the petrol market will be limited to enthusiasts.

I think that's right, but I'm also wondering if it gets to the point where petrol cars are banned in locations A, B and C - or taxed to a ridiculous level - or it simply becomes socially unacceptable to drive a petrol powered car in some circles/places.

It leads me to wonder - say you're looking to buy a new sports car later in this decade. Do you buy one last petrol powered one and hang on to it, or do you go electric at that point? I would wonder about the wisdom of buying say the equivalent of today's Cayman GTS 4.0 for $200k in 2026 knowing it will be limited in usability/worth bugger all 5-10 years down the road. Might be great to roll out on Internal Combustion Sundays in future but that's a lot of money to spend for that sort of use.

[Mr Purple]

I'd buy the last petrol powered one.

The only thing I can see dropping the values of a GT3/GTS 4.0/GT4 is them being made illegal or petrol or an equivalent being completely unavailable or crazy expensive. I think the first is pretty unlikely, and the second likewise.

I'm thinking electric cars will become predominant because they're better at transporting people than ICE cars, not because the petrol runs out.

[Captiva Fan]

^ If getting petrol becomes as difficult as getting E85 is now, I think that'll have an effect on values of now-desirable ICE cars.

[Slides]

Hybrid rav 4 drives noticeably better than a regular one, we have them at work.

[MZ21]

That does make some sense but I’m not forcing them to upgrade, especially if they traded/sold to a dealer. Me walking into the 2nd hand dealer and buying the used car is better than me walking into Tesla and buying a new car.

and whilst I may not push cars to their usable life we do keep them for more than a decade typically.

B

Walk into a dealer and buyer a second hand EV, same logic applies. Basically *any* used car will be better than an new in terms of environmental footprint if care about that stuff.

[chartreusehj]

^ If getting petrol becomes as difficult as getting E85 is now, I think that'll have an effect on values of now-desirable ICE cars.

Honestly, e85 was always going to be a niche fuel used by a very small percentage of road users.

Remember the pump 100ron sold by shell all those years ago? Everyone I knew who upped compression/boost to suit ended up very disappointed.

In a lot of ways, an enthusiast is better off building to 95ron and using 98 as a safety margin, I can see a day coming where 98ron gets rarer too (price, OEM's not building for it) but I feel like 95 will be available for quite a while .