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ICE vehicle values once EV's reach price tipping point. Slow decline or fiscal cliff?

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    #76
    Originally posted by Norbie View Post
    I predict that most servos will slowly transition to charging stations, and the number of pumps at each servo will dwindle over time but not necessarily go away - eventually you might end up with just one pump hidden away at the back, a bit like the kerosene pumps you still sometimes see at servos today.

    Given that classic cars can be kept running basically indefinitely I can't see the market for petrol going away completely, and if there is a market for it someone is going to serve that market.
    I think the cost will be the issue, though. The only reason ULP98 can be cheaper than milk, given what's involved in making the petrol, is pure volume.
    And I think it's going to affect values of collectible old cars, because using $200 in fuel on a run down to Cars & Coffee of a Saturday morning affects what someone would pay for an otherwise-$20k old car, which affects what someone would pay for an otherwise-$40k old car, which affects what someone would pay for an otherwise-$100k old car, etc etc.
    Soft roaders represent an excellent compromise between the needs of the hardcore 4x4 user and the convenience of a city hatchback. Its clear to see why they have become so popular in todays society.

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      #77
      Originally posted by vet 180 View Post
      The issue here is the ownership of the various energy providers. BP, shell etc have very little to do with AGL, origin etc.
      You might be surprised. I can't speak for BP but I can tell you Shell is making big moves in solar and other renewables right now. I suspect all the big players see the writing on the wall and are making long term plans accordingly.
      Norbie!

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        #78
        And then synthetic fuels....
        .... because every driver experiences the destructive potential of the effortless surge of power available through the smallest of body movements.

        Dr Hoon
        .

        DrNick is king!!!! No, Mark Webber is now! Long live the king!... hold on a minute mate, Ricci is in charge now

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          #79
          At present EV sales in Australia are something like 0.3% of the market. Let's say the Government announces tomorrow that there will be no new ICE cars sold in Australia after 2030.

          There's about a million new cars sold in Australia each year. If we assume that 100% electric in 2030 involves EVs growing to 10% market share next year, 20% the year after, and so on - it won't be linear like that but it'll do - that still leaves about 4.5 million petrol powered cars hitting the roads this decade.

          I'd guess that leaves enough petrol demand for about 50% of current petrol stations to be open through to 2040.

          The remaining petrol stations post 2040 would probably work pretty well as a place for crusty old car guys (you know, us...) to gather on weekends, fuel up our classics and talk about the good old days.

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            #80
            Service stations aren't going to become charging stations until technology exists for a 3 minute recharge.

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              #81
              I don't think repurposing of petrol stations is going to be widespread. There may be a few converted for fast charging in key locations, but eventually people will understand you want the car charging when you're NOT using it, like parked at the shops, at work, at home etc. The only time you would use a dedicated fast-charging station is when you're low on power and need a top-up to get to your regular charging point, or you have to keep moving, like a courier/uber etc. Fast charging will be at a significant additional cost, due to the convenience/necessity and high cost of providing the infrastructure in the first place.

              There's also not a lot of shared infrastructure, other than the land. The relatively small power feed going into existing servos isn't going to fast-charge many cars without significant upgrade, and that's probably way too hard and uneconomical for a stinky, contaminated site.

              We have done 10,000km in our leaf in about 15 months and are yet to use a public charging station - it has all been through a 15a outlet in the carport.

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                #82
                Originally posted by Captiva Fan View Post
                I think the cost will be the issue, though. The only reason ULP98 can be cheaper than milk, given what's involved in making the petrol, is pure volume.
                And I think it's going to affect values of collectible old cars, because using $200 in fuel on a run down to Cars & Coffee of a Saturday morning affects what someone would pay for an otherwise-$20k old car, which affects what someone would pay for an otherwise-$40k old car, which affects what someone would pay for an otherwise-$100k old car, etc etc.
                This makes sense to me. Garaging and registering a petrol burner is going to be like owning a horse today. A hobby for the well off.

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                  #83
                  Originally posted by Grungle View Post
                  but eventually people will understand you want the car charging when you're NOT using it, like parked at the shops, at work, at home etc. The only time you would use a dedicated fast-charging station is when your wife has been using the car for a couple of days and fails to charge it at any point
                  Ftfy

                  Originally posted by myshortyboomba
                  I've had many gauges in cars. I always found the conrods react faster than a gauge.

                  you can always hear them when they break and they stop the engine immediately so you can't do any more damage.

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                    #84
                    Originally posted by Captiva Fan View Post
                    I think the cost will be the issue, though. The only reason ULP98 can be cheaper than milk, given what's involved in making the petrol, is pure volume.
                    Where are you buying 98ron cheaper than milk?

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                      #85
                      Originally posted by chartreusehj View Post
                      Where are you buying 98ron cheaper than milk?
                      $1.20 per litre last time I bought it, about 3 weeks ago... I don't buy Colesworths farmer-detesticulating milk.
                      [edit: although it was damned close to inaccurate, I just checked and the Harris Farm stuff we buy is $1.25/L ]
                      Last edited by Captiva Fan; 18-11-20, 03:49 PM.
                      Soft roaders represent an excellent compromise between the needs of the hardcore 4x4 user and the convenience of a city hatchback. Its clear to see why they have become so popular in todays society.

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                        #86
                        ...and likely just as acceptable in years to come as riding your horse down the main road to Woolies.

                        I wouldn't be surprised to see ICE cars totally banned on weekdays by about 2040.

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                          #87
                          Originally posted by Captiva Fan View Post
                          $1.20 per litre last time I bought it, about 3 weeks ago... I don't buy Colesworths farmer-detesticulating milk.
                          [edit: although it was damned close to inaccurate, I just checked and the Harris Farm stuff we buy is $1.25/L ]
                          Wow. I can hardly get 91ron swill for that price in my area. Paid 1.15 for it this week and wasn't disappointed.

                          We do drink between 15 and 20 litres a week of detesticulating milk though.

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                            #88
                            Originally posted by chartreusehj View Post
                            Wow. I can hardly get 91ron swill for that price in my area. Paid 1.15 for it this week and wasn't disappointed.
                            It's been all over the joint, I checked Fuel Check just now, and in a 5km radius it's between 1.349 & 1.659 ... I don't think I've seen weekly random regular variations between ~1.199 and ~1.749 before, ever.
                            Soft roaders represent an excellent compromise between the needs of the hardcore 4x4 user and the convenience of a city hatchback. Its clear to see why they have become so popular in todays society.

                            Comment


                              #89
                              Originally posted by Backmarker View Post

                              This makes sense to me. Garaging and registering a petrol burner is going to be like owning a horse today. A hobby for the well off.
                              At some point it will be cheaper to use barrellled e85 or high octane 44 gallon drums at home.

                              Sent from my SM-N960N using Tapatalk

                              Originally posted by Babalouie
                              Geez we're a bunch of softcocks...we have a 911 and we're obsessing over non-functional ducts and indicator colours

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                                #90
                                There are probably stupid rules around storing "bulk" fuel at home and I don't ever see decent drum fuel being cheaper than pump but denatured ethanol isn't particularly expensive and I'd happily buy a dirty old ute that doesnt run and fit a "long range" fuel tank of around 200l if it skirts those rules.

                                Realistically though, for the amount of miles I put on my car, 3 bucks a litre isnt going to stop me putting some fuel in it and cruising on a saturday afternoon and with the US being the last bastion of freedom, fun and doing what you feel there is no way petrol based fuels are going away anytime soon.
                                Last edited by chartreusehj; 18-11-20, 06:37 PM.

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