ICE vehicle values once EV's reach price tipping point. Slow decline or fiscal cliff?

[Captiva Fan]

I don't think $3/L would stop many people (refer Europe), but if the only people buying petrol are going on a Sunday drive every 3rd week it's going to be more like $30/L.

[vet 180]

There are probably stupid rules around storing "bulk" fuel at home and I don't ever see decent drum fuel being cheaper than pump but denatured ethanol isn't particularly expensive and I'd happily buy a dirty old ute that doesnt run and fit a "long range" fuel tank of around 200l if it skirts those rules.

Realistically though, for the amount of miles I put on my car, 3 bucks a litre isnt going to stop me putting some fuel in it and cruising on a saturday afternoon and with the US being the last bastion of freedom, fun and doing what you feel there is no way petrol based fuels are going away anytime soon.

Diesel will be around for a very long time yet. E HV vehicles do not make sense for the forseeable future

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[Captiva Fan]

Diesel will be around for a very long time yet. E HV vehicles do not make sense for the forseeable future

It makes me very much wonder about how the UK has just walked it's ban on new ICE sales for private vehicles (including hybrids) forward to 2030.
The airlines are probably hoping they can hold out for the next 10 years, because after that nobody's gonna be able to drive more than about a 200km range from home ... either that or there will be massive hotels set up for overnight stays every 400km along the Pacific & Princes Highways.

[nastysven]

It's been all over the joint, I checked Fuel Check just now, and in a 5km radius it's between 1.349 & 1.659 ... I don't think I've seen weekly random regular variations between ~1.199 and ~1.749 before, ever.

paid 1.05 yesterday for 91.

No you cannot store fuel at home in bulk unless you have the right gear if you want insurance.

[Captiva Fan]

paid 1.05 yesterday for 91.

I was talking about car fuel, not mower fuel.
[which doesn't really work either because who runs a petrol mower any more?!]

[Backmarker]

The airlines are probably hoping they can hold out for the next 10 years, because after that nobody's gonna be able to drive more than about a 200km range from home ... either that or there will be massive hotels set up for overnight stays every 400km along the Pacific & Princes Highways.

A friend of mine is a physicist who works in the alternative energy industry - they're making big noises about hydrogen energy. Easily transported, quickly transferred into vehicles (or anything else). A patchwork of electric for short trips and hydrogen for longer might be what happens.

[perthdrivers.txt]

It makes me very much wonder about how the UK has just walked it's ban on new ICE sales for private vehicles (including hybrids) forward to 2030.
The airlines are probably hoping they can hold out for the next 10 years, because after that nobody's gonna be able to drive more than about a 200km range from home ... either that or there will be massive hotels set up for overnight stays every 400km along the Pacific & Princes Highways.

Only if you assume there will be no further battery or motor tech improvements for the next 10 years

Also i dont know why people are freaking out about the new car ban - even the pro-ev groups admit 2/3rds of cars on the road in 2030 will still be ICE. Its not like banning new cars suddenly makes the millions of existing vehicles disappear.

[Captiva Fan]

Only if you assume there will be no further battery or motor tech improvements for the next 10 years

I had exactly that in mind. For example, lookit the original Leaf, released here in 2012 so probably 2011 in Japan? Close enough to 10 years old. And if we then apply the same amount of change from then to now for another 10yrs, it doesn't get me to Mount Isa to visit Auntie Boo.

[vet 180]

It makes me very much wonder about how the UK has just walked it's ban on new ICE sales for private vehicles (including hybrids) forward to 2030.
The airlines are probably hoping they can hold out for the next 10 years, because after that nobody's gonna be able to drive more than about a 200km range from home ... either that or there will be massive hotels set up for overnight stays every 400km along the Pacific & Princes Highways.

Yeah for private vehicles it wont make too much of a difference. In the next 10 years a lot if infrastructure will get put in place and people will just stop a 1/2 hour to charge every 200kms. Which will be good for the little tourist towns and road saftey.

A lotvof people think it will be the battery tech itself that will make leaps and bounds in the next 10 years, but it will be the infrastructure of counties that does. People seem to think battery tech is in its infancy while ice is at its end if life cycle, but the fact is battery tech has been heavily progressing over the past 40 years in other sectors that give a far better roi than the automotive sector

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[perthdrivers.txt]

I had exactly that in mind. For example, lookit the original Leaf, released here in 2012 so probably 2011 in Japan? Close enough to 10 years old. And if we then apply the same amount of change from then to now for another 10yrs, it doesn't get me to Mount Isa to visit Auntie Boo.

The Tesla Model S has improved its range by about 50% since its 2012 release. At ~650km now, even allowing for a reduced rate of tech improvement and the difference between theoretical and real-world ranges, i think we'll be ok

[Norbie]

A friend of mine is a physicist who works in the alternative energy industry - they're making big noises about hydrogen energy. Easily transported, quickly transferred into vehicles (or anything else). A patchwork of electric for short trips and hydrogen for longer might be what happens.

Hydrogen has a lot of things going for it, but "easily transported" definitely isn't one of them.

[Backmarker]

Ha ha - you'll note that I'm not the physicist. Perhaps he meant 'relatively' compared to shipping electrical energy overseas. His basic thrust was Australia can generate bulk renewable energy and export it even if there's a lot of inefficiencies in liquefying and shipping it.

[200MPH]

Sending Hydrogen anywhere is a right pain in the proverbial. Converting it to NH3 (Ammonia) and sending that is far more practical was to send 'energy' around the world. Not sure what you lose at each end in energy consumption for the conversion process however. Bit like the whole idea of pumped hydro to store excess electrical energy. You lose a fair % on the energy conversion, but it works and is proven.

It's something to keep an eye on at least for now.

[vet 180]

https://carbuzz.com/news/porsche-dev...bustion-engine

Porsche throwing 20 million euros at alternative carbon neutral gasoline

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[Smudge]

Japan also condidering a ban on ICE vehicles (mid 2030's). Domino effect?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-j...-idUSKBN28D044